Abstract

Drawing upon the International Telecommunication Union, Freedom House, and World Bank databases and using machine learning methods, this study sheds new light on the effects of the internet and online censorhip on democratization in partly free countries. The findings suggest that internet penetration and online censorship both have a negative impact on democracy scores and the internet’s effect on democracy scores is conditioned by online censorship. Moreover, results from random forest suggest that online censorship is the most important variable followed by governance index and education on democracy scores. The comparison of the various machine learning models reveals that the best predicting model is the 175-tree random forest model which has 92% accuracy.


Author: Mustafa Sagir



Highlights and Accomplishments:

  • Peer Reviewed Publications:
    • Sagir, Mustafa, and Ben Feldmeyer. "Immigration Effects on Crime in a Midwestern, Non-Traditional Destination: A Neighborhood-Level Analysis of Cincinnati, Ohio." Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice (Accepted/forthcoming in June)
  • Grants, Awards or Special Recognition:
    • TAFT Graduate Summer Fellowship Award (2020)
    • TAFT Graduate Enrichment Award (2019)
    • Honorable Mention Award. University of Cincinnati IT EXPO Research Symposium (2020)
  • Conference Presentations:
    • Sagir, Mustafa, and Stephen Mockabee. "Trump Effect on Public Attitudes Toward Immigration: Comparison of 2012 and 2016 Presidential Election Campaigns and Testing Alternative Explanations." To have been presented at the Midwestern Political Science Association 2020 Conference. Chicago, Illinois. 16-19 March 2020. [Cancelled due to COVID-19]
    • Mewhirter, Jack, Danielle McLaughlin, and Mustafa Sagir. "Substitutes or Complements: How Forum Participation Impacts Other Collaborative Activity." To have been presented at the Midwestern Political Science Association 2020 Conference. Chicago, Illinois. 16-19 March 2020. [Cancelled due to COVID-19]
    • Sagir, Mustafa, and Said Varlioglu "Explaining the Relationship between Internet and Democracy in Partly Free Countries by Using Machine Learning Models" University of Cincinnati IT EXPO-2020 Research Symposium. Cincinnati, Ohio. 14 March 2020. [Honorable Mention Award]
    • Sagir, Mustafa. "Norm Construction and Tacit Bargaining in the Cyber Domain." International Studies Association-Midwest 2019 Conference. St. Louis, Missouri. 22 November 2019.
  • Service to Department, University, or Community:
    • Project Manager, Kentucky Gubernatorial Election - 2019 Exit Poll Project.
    • Research Assistant, Protect Ohio Election - 2020 Project
  • Professional Development:
    • Directed Independent Study: Machine Learning and Applications in Political Science
    • Workshop: Grant Writing - Research Development & Support Series: AtKisson Group NEH Grant Writing Seminar
    • Workshop: Analyzing Twitter Data with R